Ok. I am getting really fed up with this. Everywhere I turn people are saying we are in a recession. So where do we start? How about the definition of recession?
“In macroeconomics, a recession is generally associated with a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.” (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession).
Of course, the NBER can overwrite this and say that we are in a recession, but I didn’t see that in their news release. (Source: http://www.nber.org/releases/). Now true, I only go to this site every few weeks and may have missed it but I don’t see anything there.
So, let’s stick at our working definition of 2 quarters of negative growth. So we should go to the BEA site, right?
“Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP also increased 0.6 percent.” Huh, seems like the economy has been expanding for the last few quarters, slowly but not negatively. (Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm)
Oh yea, this was released April 30, 2008 so it’s pretty current.
Well it FEELS like a recession. Well, my desk at work feels like I’m in a cockpit of a jet fighter. Guess what. I’m not. And we aren’t in a recession.
So enjoy life because we have 4 months before we could possible be in a recession. That’s right, we need 6 months of negative GDP before we can declare a recession.
Recession Rant
May 27th, 2008 at 09:59 pm
May 27th, 2008 at 11:01 pm 1211925674
May 28th, 2008 at 03:28 am 1211941695
But yeah, if we go by the official definition, then we are not in an officially-declared recession yet. Personally, I don't care what people want to call this anymore. I think it's more important to focus on what opportunities we can find in any kind of market.
But that's just me anyway....
May 28th, 2008 at 05:44 am 1211949864
May 28th, 2008 at 03:30 pm 1211985017
I am SOOO glad I got off that freaky carnival ride last year, before the news got really doom-and-gloom. Otherwise I probably would be blaming a phantom recession for my debt instead of my own poor planning, and the longer it took me to admit responsibility, the harder I would have fought getting on the budget straight and narrow.
May 28th, 2008 at 03:49 pm 1211986152
May 28th, 2008 at 04:09 pm 1211987384
And my favorite recessions are the ones that the economy is expanding quarter after quarter. I wish all recessions were like that.
What I should have asked is at: what positve growth rate does the economy shrink?
And Q2 might be the first negative GDP number, but I don't think it will be that bad, especially when the stimulus checks start working their way through.
I think next I will tackle inflation next.
Ceejay, that made me laugh.
May 28th, 2008 at 04:58 pm 1211990305
May 29th, 2008 at 12:23 am 1212017035
May 29th, 2008 at 05:05 am 1212033915
In fact. CNN has a site called recession watch .... I kind you not. With such articles like, New recession worry: Bank failures and Watch inflation now! (which is about 70's stagflation).