I was looking at your target trade and thought I would put in my two cents.
The red lines I put in is the current trading channel. It has been trading in here since middle of March. I also noticed some resistance points just below 52 and 55. Over the next week or so, you should see whether it is following the red or the green area.
Personally I believe it is fallowing the top green line and the bottom red line. If this is the case, it should be setting up a classic pennant and then shot through 55. At that point, I would buy.
That’s my 2 cent thoughts. By the way, if the news was not reflected into the price of the stock, it would have gone down more then 55 cents with greater volume (probably closer to 2 or 2.5 times the 3 month average).
So, bottom line is I think you made a great pick. But I think you got in too early and out too soon. But we shall see.
Response to BA
May 20th, 2008 at 08:03 pm
May 21st, 2008 at 11:46 am 1211370374
My normal game plan relies on present data, not forecasted data, even if it's only one day away. I think that was my first mistake. Consequently, I agree that I got in a little too early.
Except for trade commissions, well, I don't think getting out was a terribly bad thing, as trading for the rest of the day stabilized and lingered at around $54.40. Of course, that's also in hindsight, as at the time, I didn't know what would happen next. I only knew that the short-term fundamentals I was relying on was gone.
So, in the end, at least I stuck to the script. It just wasn't the normal script I typically go by.
I'm still up for a buy with Target though! It's still a good company with a decent long-term prospects. So, that's what I'm going to do next time, which is to stick with the original game plan, rather than time the market for quick kills.